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范惊宇:中兴带给我们的思考究竟是什么
(博讯北京时间2018年6月12日 来稿)
    中兴被封杀的事件近期火热,先是被美国商务部判了死刑,随后中兴宣布主要业务已经停止,再后川普指示商务部放生,再到川普表态谈判前景不乐观,而美众议院紧急通过修正案以阻止商务部重新谈判中兴禁售令,最后近期在本周达成协议,用10亿美元(约合64亿元人民币)的罚款换取美国解除近乎致命的处罚措施后,这家电信巨头将得以恢复智能手机和网络设备制造。中兴事件激发了芯片讨论的热潮。
    
     谈起中兴事件,国内很多媒体处在看山就是山的层面,认为中兴给的教训就是技不如人,核心科技还是掌握在欧美发达国家手中;根据这样的结论后清朝廷习近平提出了“核心技术是国之重器”,和前清的“师夷长技以制夷”几乎如出一辙,而这正是前后两个清朝廷的短视和对根因的无视,即只注重器物的学习,而故意忽视制度学习。提出师夷长技以制夷的理念后,解决方案就只剩下举国体制造芯片,新闻中北京砸钱千亿开发芯片,马云收购五家半导体企业,董明珠称砸钱500亿做芯片,颇有新时代高科技大跃进的味道,殊不知举国体制和大跃进只适合原子弹这类主要是依靠的大规模投入和时间的工程,而不适合依靠市场机制和持续创新的高科技行业。

    
    我们为什么造不出竞争力强的芯片来?文昭先生提出了“生态”的说法,我狗尾续貂加了点自己的看法:中共统治下的生态只有利于举国体制和房地产,而丝毫不利于芯片这样的高科技,我们细致对比来看,经营房地产速度快,通过政商关系拿地拿容积率再拿下银行贷款事情基本就成了,技术层面要求并不太高;芯片则耗时,需要积累和培养技术人才,最大的关键词在创造。房地产可以依靠滥用的权力和腐败作为最有力的土壤,芯片的土壤却是洗脑填鸭教育和山寨思想,这样的土壤最不利科技创新;房地产以03年后确定的房地产成为支柱产业的政策作为阳光而蓬勃发展,芯片则是政策和举国体制难以推动的行业,疯狂砸钱惨败收场的前车之鉴已经有了很多;房地产以13亿分母为基数的市场作为庞大的水源,而国产芯片以政府采购为水源,政府采购结束水源则断。以这种生态为因,生出了如今房地产和芯片两种结果,经济生态决定了房地产泡沫经济的兴和高科技实体企业的衰,房地产泡沫经济的兴盛又更加挤压了高科技实体经济,就像段子里讲的,卖了房去创业辛苦二十年赚的钱却买不回当年卖掉的房产,这样的生态只能越来越鼓励投机,速成,需要持续创新又不能马上见效的事情比如芯片当然是无视和被挤压。
    
    生态是以什么为基础形成的呢?是政治制度。深度腐败,低人权,洗脑教育是一党专制的产物,想要高科技的兴盛则需要自由氛围,需要启蒙教育而非洗脑填鸭,以人为本重视人的权利,尊重知识产权而非鼓励山寨剽窃;生态孕育产业,是产业之母,体制孕育生态,是生态之母,前清朝失败的原因亦在于只去学习器物,这是因果颠倒,本末倒置。要解决房产和芯片的困局,必须改变生态,而 几十年累积出的生态积重难返,执政者提出的口号仍然不治标更不治本;实事求是地讲,推翻腐朽旧制度,才能重造健康生态,才是解决问题的长远和根本之道。
    
    因此,最终很容易推演到,推翻共产党一党独裁专制,推动国家走向民主自由,是经济长足健康发展的根基。
    
    范惊宇 6月11日
    
    ZTE was sentenced to death penalty by US commerce Department few weeks ago, after that ZTE’s main business operations have ceased due to the ban imposed by the U.S. government but, unexpectedly President Donald Trump took to Twitter saying that he was working with President Xi in China to help dig ZTE out of the hole it's been in for the past few weeks. Now, the House Appropriations Committee has issued an order preventing Trump from doing anything. Clearly ZTE became a piece of the gambling between the US and China.
     When talking about ZTE, lots of Chinese media can’t or dare not to dig deeper, they only say what they see, and think the lesson taught by ZTE crisis is we have fallen behind in technology, which is in western countries’ hands. According to such a point, Xi jin ping put “Technology matters” forward, which is exactly same with Qing dynasty’s idea: Defeating western country by learning from their technology. Now we know such an idea is shortsighted and discarded of main reason, only emphasize on the importance of technology, but not learn from their political system first. Therefore, the only choice is to develop technology by using whole nation’s resource, Beijing plan to invest one hundred billion on chip, Mayun purchased 5 chip companies, Dong mingzhu said she’d like to invest 50 billion on chip, kind of like The Great Leap in 1958 which was proved to be a failure. They don’t know great leap forward movement is only suitable for nuclear weapons, rather than high-tech which needs Constant innovation .
     Why can’t Chinese companies produce competitive chip productions? Mr. Wen Zhao puts forward the notion “ecology”, base on “ecology”, I’d like to expand it briefly. Under the rule of Communist Party, the Eco-system make real estate get benefits, high-tech industry get hurt, real estate and high-tech are the two sides of one system: Real estate is fast, to bribe the officers to get the land, get high plot ratio, and bank loan, finally the thing will be done; Chip industry is time consuming, requiring the accumulation and training of technical personnel, the key word is innovation.
     Real estate can rely on the abuse of power and corruption as the most nutritious soil; Chip industry’s soil is brainwashing education and copycatting ideology, the most unfavourable soil for innovation. In 2003, real estate became the pillar industry as a fundamental policy, that is the bountiful sunlight, while chip industry is different, policy and money-throwing can hardly promote. Real estate has a base of 1.3 billion people as the source of water, while domestic chips are purchased by the government as the source of water.
     This kind of Ecology give birth to Chinese real estate and domestic chips, it determined the boom of real estate’s bubble and the failure of domestic chip industry. Even worse, this bubble is squeezing the space of high-tech industry badly: Like the tragedy says, one Chinese sold his house and 20 years later, the money he earned form doing business can not buy his house back in Shenzhen. This metaphor clearly shows how real estate encourage people to abandon industry and invest in property.
    What is ecology based on? It’s political system. Deep-rooted corruption, low-level human rights, brain-washing education, are the productions of one-party autocracy. For the prosperity of high-tech industry, we need freedom, liberty, ideological enlightenment rather than brainwashing education, respect human rights and intellectual property rather than encourage copycatting.
     Ecology is the mother of industries, political system breeds ecology, the failure of previous Qing Dynasty is only learn technology, which is a reverse of cause and effect. To solve the problem, President Xi’s solution cant even cure the symptom, not to mention cure it thoroughly, the fundamental way is overturning the old system and restoring a health ecology.
     Therefore, it’s easy to conclude that overthrow of the communist party’s dictatorship and move towards democracy is the foundation of healthy economical development. [博讯来稿] (博讯 boxun.com)
(本文只代表作者或者发稿团体的观点、立场)
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