[加评论] 页面有问题?请点击打印板-》打印版                  [推荐此文给朋友]
[博讯主页]->[大陆新闻]
   

美《国家地理》:世界科学家1年前就已发出地震预警!(图)
请看博讯热点:四川地震

(博讯北京时间2008年5月18日 转载)
    5月12日四川省北川县发生的致命地震之前的约10个月,一项科学报告就已经警告中国地区将面临一次大型地震。
    
    科学家们通过仔细研究卫星图像,且对四川省的地壳断层的十年来的深度和活动研究之后,发出了以上警告。
    
    在2007年7月中期的《地壳》杂志中,中国,欧洲和美国的科学家们写道:“断层的长度已经足以引发一次强烈的撼动地面的地震,它的潜力将成为爆发区域性地震的来源。
    
    科学家的结论是,地壳撞击的能量在北川聚积,并将以地震的形式释放出来。
    
    现在看来这个预言精确的甚至让人不寒而栗,当研究人员将活动的断层在北川的彩色地图上标示了出来时,那里正好这场地震的震中。(见附图)
    
    来自田纳西的孟菲斯大学的地震研究和信息中心的Micheal Ellis,同时也是这项研究的联合作者之一,表示“据我所知,这是对这些活跃断层的唯一调查。”
    
    发生于5月12日的7.9级地震几乎将四川省的部分地区夷为平地。中国官方今天估测死亡人数将到达5万人,几乎5百万人将无家可归。
    
    锁进了杂志
    可以确信中国官方对2007年7月的报告完全没有察觉,否则事情绝不会沦为现在的局面。
    
    “我们已经明确的标示出了这些活跃断层的潜力,”Ellis说到。“但这个信息事实上被锁进了一份学术期刊。”Ellis希望能用防震建筑替换如今已经塌陷的建筑,这样起码可以避免未来的悲剧。
    
    “(地震前)我曾经去过这些小型村镇”,Ellis说,“大多数房屋都没有使用加固材料,而且那些地区几乎没有制砖厂。”
    
    他补充说,“制造防震建筑成本相对较高,但四川省的绝大多数人民却十分贫困。”
    
    地震背后的科学
    北川的地震活动并不罕见。
    
    “我们的证据显示从12000至13000年前开始,北川就始终伴随着使地表断裂的地震。”Ellis和同事在去年夏天的报告中写到。
    
    在接受国家地理新闻的采访时,Ellis说到,“根本上说,(2008年)地震的原因是印度和亚洲地壳板块持续且不可阻挡的碰撞,其速率约为一年20-22毫米。”
    
    此次碰撞起始于5千万年前,当时印度下方板块撞向了欧洲板块。
    
    Ellis补充说“喜马拉雅和青藏高原便是从这个碰撞中产生的。”
    
    随着印度板块持续缓慢的撞向亚洲,猛烈的时候就产生了地震,整个青藏高原都被向北推动。
    
    “这次地震是西藏的山区向东边成都平原移动”,一位没有参与2007年7月报告的地质学家,科罗拉多大学的Roger Bilham说到。
    
    问题不局限于四川
    报告的联合作者Ellis说,随着西藏高原北移,“西藏的中部地区正在塌陷,就像奶酪刚从烤箱中拿出来放到冷空气中一样。”
    
    Ellis指出,西藏的南部边缘在断层一侧,其面对的地震威胁和四川一样大。
    
    Ellis补充说:“喜马拉雅地区相关的财产和生命损失的风险非常之大,因为有大量的人口居住在哪里或者马上迁移过去。”
    
    “这风险几乎和四川一样高,因为人口和,类似于印度尼泊尔的,相对劣质的建筑标准。”
    
    而且,随着印度板块持续撞向西藏,“它正在制造新的断层”,同时也意味着新的危险。
    
    
    
美《国家地理》:世界科学家1年前就已发出地震预警!

    
    文章提到的卫星拍摄的断层图像
    
    本文来自于美国的国家地理杂志National Geographic
    原文地址:
    
    http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2008/05/080516-earthquake-predicted.html
    
    Study Warned of China Quake Risk Nearly a Year Ago
    
    Kevin Holden Platt in Beijing
    for National Geographic News
    May 16, 2008
    
    Just ten months before a deadly earthquake struck Sichuan Province's Beichuan county on May 12, a scientific study warned that the Chinese region was ripe for a major quake.
    
    After examining satellite images and conducting on-the-ground inspections of deep, active faults in Sichuan Province for more than a decade, scientists issued a warning.
    
    China earthquake predicted (map)
    
    "The faults are sufficiently long to sustain a strong ground-shaking earthquake, making them potentially serious sources of regional seismic hazard," the Chinese, European, and U.S. geoscientists wrote in the mid-July 2007 edition of the journal Tectonics.
    
    They concluded that clashing tectonic forces were growing in Beichuan, ready to burst in an explosion of seismic energy.
    
    With precision and what now seems like eerie foresight, the researchers charted the active faults on multicolored maps of Beichuan, which turned out to be the epicenter of the recent earthquake.
    
    "As far as I know, this is the only investigation of these active faults," said study co-author Michael Ellis of the Center for Earthquake Research and Information at the University of Memphis in Tennessee.
    
    (Related: "China Quake Delivered Seismic One-Two Punch" [May 15, 2008].)
    
    The magnitude 7.9 quake that struck on May 12 almost entirely leveled parts of Sichuan Province. Chinese officials today estimated that the death toll would reach 50,000 and that nearly five million people are homeless.
    
    (See photos of the earthquake's destruction.)
    
    "Locked in a Journal"
    
    There is little reason to believe Chinese officials were aware of the July 2007 report, or that it would have made much difference if they had been.
    
    "We had certainly identified the potential of these active faults," Ellis said. "But that information was effectively locked in an academic journal."
    
    Ellis hopes that replacing the collapsed buildings with earthquake-proof structures could prevent future tragedies.
    
    "I've been to these little towns [before the quake]," Ellis said. "Most of the houses are built of unreinforced masonry, and you can see little brick factories all around this area.
    
    China earthquake predicted (map)
    
    "It is more expensive to build earthquake-proof structures," he added. And the vast majority of people in Sichuan Province are anything but rich.
    
    The Science Behind the Quake
    
    Earthquake activity is nothing new in Beichuan.
    
    "We have shown evidence for surface-rupturing earthquakes along the Beichuan fault since 12,000-13,000 years ago," Ellis and colleagues reported last summer.
    
    Speaking with National Geographic News, Ellis said, "Ultimately, the [2008] earthquake is related to the continuing and inexorable collision of India with Asia, which is occurring at a rate of about 20 to 22 milimeters [just under an inch] per year."
    
    This collision started more than 50 million years ago, when the tectonic plate beneath India crashed into the Eurasian plate. (Watch how the plates slammed into each other.)
    
    "The Himalayas and all of Tibet was created by this collision," Ellis added.
    
    As the Indian plate continues its slow-motion crash into Asia—sometimes in jerks marked by earthquakes—it is pushing the entire Tibetan Plateau northward.
    
    "This earthquake was the Tibetan mountains moving east over the plains of Chengdu [the capital of Sichuan Province]," said Roger Bilham, a geoscientist at the University of Colorado who was not involved in the July 2007 study.
    
    Not Just Sichuan's Problem
    
    Study co-author Ellis said that, as the Tibetan Plateau moves northward, "the interior parts of Tibet are collapsing, rather like a soufflé taken out of the oven into cold air."
    
    Faults along the southern, Himalayan edge of Tibet present hazards as great as those underlying the Sichuan temblor, Ellis said.
    
    "Risk associated with the loss of collateral and lives is very high along the Himalaya, because so many people live there or immediately downstream," Ellis added.
    
    "The risk is similarly high in Sichuan [to the east], because of the population and, like India and Nepal, the relatively poor building standards," he said.
    
    And as India continues to pound into Tibet, "it is still creating new fault lines"—and new dangers. _(博讯记者:qass) (博讯 boxun.com)

博讯相关报道(最近20条,更多请利用搜索功能):
  • 温家宝总理在地震灾区的88个小时 (图)
  • 可怜的孩子:被地震夺去生命后,手中握住的 (图)
  • 地震严重影响中国粮食生产
  • 汶川地震之“最”:悲痛感动并存
  • 汶川地震 死伤已接近23万
  • 青川县地震堰塞湖已溢出 暂无危险报告
  • 大地震中完好无损的北川县刘汉希望小学 (图)
  • 华尔街日报:汶川大地震成因探寻
  • 地震:疫情已经发生,死亡学生家长计划聚会商讨状告教育部
  • 四川自贡市失地农民为地震重灾区捐款(图)
  • 汶川大地震-我们深知失去家园的痛苦 (孩子篇)(视频)
  • 请看南都们在地震后对政府和人民的训示!!!
  • 中国地震局研究员:三年大旱 地震先兆
  • 阿坝州防震减灾局成功平息地震误传事件
  • 山撞山,馀震酿洪患,四川大地震灾区危情频现,120万人疏散
  • 最牛的希望小学:汶川大地震中唯一没倒的学校
  • 给总理的一封信:汶川地震,德阳最惨
  • 川北地震:蟾蜍有过警告/DW
  • 广电总局广科院院长:地震紧急广播应学习日本
  • 巴布亚新几内亚发生6.8级地震 可能引发海啸
  • 南方周末人事地震爆发,十名记愤然请辞
  • 四川地震,胡温并非一体(1 )
  • 九問四川大地震是天災還是人禍?(之三)/我思我在
  • 九問四川大地震是天災還是人禍?(之二)/ 我思我在
  • 地震引起的几点想法――――我们的救灾体制和军队实力(转载天涯网已被删帖)(图)
  • 外媒担忧汶川地震给北京奥运带来变数
  • 九問四川大地震是天災還是人禍?(之一)/我思我在
  • 郭小林:山祭—为“5·12”汶川大地震而作
  • 中国汶川地震的直接经济损失可能为5252亿元
  • 关于紧急处理“5.12大地震”相关事宜的十一点公民建议
  • 地震局为什么迟迟不下“罪己诏”?!
  • 大地震,中國民間在行動/刘晓波
  • 救灾岂容有空白?——汶川大地震的一个盲点/张成觉
  • 大地震:莫让偏远山区乡村成为救援的盲点/张建
  • 地震放大两大悲惨:建筑质量差和计划生育残忍
  • 闹地震/大宗师
  • 道歉与转变:CNN对中国地震报道感动很多人
  • 汶川大地震后带给人们的思考/廖双元
  • 吴志明抵制奥运会火炬传递 打压为地震灾区捐款娟物/孔强(图)
  • 汶川地震,军队花了几代的钱,但指挥能力和战斗力退化了几代?


    点击这里对此新闻发表看法
  •    
    联系我们


    All rights reserved
    博讯是畅所欲言的场所、所有文章均不一定代表博讯立场
    声明:博讯由编辑、义务留学生、学者维护,如有版权问题,请联系我们。另外,欢迎其他媒体 转载博讯文章,为尊重作者的辛勤劳动以及所承担风险,尊重博讯广大义务人士的奉献,请转载时注明来源和作者。